By the end of the year, that may change, but Etienne will be a change-of-pace and gadget player who might earn flex value this year until then. And free-agent acquisitions Mark Ingram II and Rex Burkhead didnt even play. most overrated running backs of all time. He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. We don't yet know how much of Kamara's past success as a pass-catcher to attribute to Brees. But he's 29, he's undersized, he had a hard time staying healthy last year, he adds little as a pass catcher, and the San Francisco backfield is awfully crowded now. For example, take Imagine Dragons and Maroon 5, both very accomplished. That, plus the uncertainty of Edmond's role, leaves me more concerned than excited. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. Sigmund Bloom: The Raiders are going to adopt a frustrating Patriots-style committee at running back under Josh McDaniels, which means that Jacobs will be at best Damien Harris in this offense. When we go into advanced stats, we can tell even more about Bettis: * Note: The stats are Bettis averages per season, not total career. The Commanders made it a priority of theirs to bring back J.D. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. I believe he should be elected because he was able to maintain a good level of consistency throughout his 13 years. He had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). He's playing for his fifth team in seven seasons and has never been an instinctive runner. They did not pick up his fifth-year option and took Zamir White in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. DYAR: 96 DVOA: 0.085% His average DYAR of 96 would rank him 24th in the NFL in 2009, right ahead of Laurence Maroney. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. This year, his new head coach -- Josh McDaniels -- is an offensive mind who made his career in schemes that utilized multiple backs as specialists for each situation. Gaskin was a revelation versus his cost a year ago but is a buyer beware in 2021. As a model for other running backs, one of the greatest running backs of all time is a horrible example. Ryan Hester: This isnt a knock on Harris, whose athletic profile and projected workload are things fantasy players dream of. Chad Parsons: Cohen is coming off an injury, and Damien Williams is a notable veteran addition to the depth chart. Therefore, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. Preseason may help a little. Although the rookie saw an uptick in usage throughout his first season, he managed to eclipse 66% of his teams snaps just once. Even the best backs need help, and Harris is less likely to have consistent holes to run through than any of the backs going around him. His best year came in 2011 when he ran for 10 touchdowns and 1,047 yards, but other than that he didn't do much else. His production waned down the stretch in Carolina last year, and when was the last time we cared about an Atlanta running back in fantasy football anyway? There are too many risk factors to comfortably draft Ekeler as a No. Its easy and lazy to make comparisons to "Todd Gurley under Sean McVay," but that hope is pushing him into a tier of running backs that he does not belong. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. McKissic on your fantasy squad, but his outlier of a 2020 season is going to cause some to reach for him heading into 2021. Adrian Peterson 10. But the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon III, which cannot be interpreted as anything short of a re-commitment to a 50/50 committee. If Robinson claims goal line work, there is an upward battle for returning a value in his ADP. Anthony Amico: Dobbins is being drafted as if he has a far greater stranglehold on this Ravens backfield than he likely will. At others, he made mistakes and was underused. In 2020, James Conner ranked 36th and Benny Snell ranked 54th in expected yards-per-carry out of 55 qualifiers, a sign of a weak offensive line and scheme. 2 fantasy back this year is a dubious decision. Bettis was nothing more than an average RB for a long period of time (13 years). Adrian . Victoria Geary: Dobbins is an elite talent on the best rushing offense in the NFL. There is also the slight concern that he will need some ramp-up time to fully be healed from his ACL tear from a season ago. Zamir White is looking like a capable back and could eat into Jacobs' carries. Jeff Haseley: Josh McDaniels' history of using multiple running backs in his offense is enough to be concerned about Josh Jacobs not having a full-time role as the lead back for the Raiders. Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers | Consensus Rankings RB9 | Consensus Projections RB9. But now in the NFL, he is removed from passing down work in favor of J.D. Johnson is the incumbent with the largest contract, and yet he's being downshifted in favor of Mark Ingram II -- who did his best work in Baltimore, where Texans head coach David Culley comes from -- and Phillip Lindsay. 31 Unsung Running Backs in NFL History By Paul Ladewski on August 3, 2021 Chris O'Meara / AP Photo Before franchise quarterbacks took pro football hostage, there was something known as franchise running backs. First, Johnson turns 30 in December, and considering all the injuries he's dealt with in his NFL career, it's hard to see him aging well. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback is going to gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB30 | Consensus Projections RB27. Take Carter later as a committee back with some possible upside, but he's being overvalued by drafters right now. The fact is, he never . Links to similar discussions on other positions: The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. That makes me want to be high on Josh Jacobs, but unfortunately, all reports point to a backfield by committee. Williams can still be a great producer, but at his ADP, I won't be drafting him when he isn't getting the bulk of the touches. Think about that for a moment. 5. However, with Smith out of town, gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick now under center, and sophomore running back Antonio Gibson expected to step up, McKissic isnt someone that will have much value in most fantasy leagues. Ryan Hester: Gibson is a unique case in fantasy football. Never a good idea. With McKissic back taking over passing down duties and Brian Robinson Jr possibly taking over red zone opportunities, Gibson is being overvalued in fantasy drafts. This is a major factor to any expectation that Robinson is fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the very early weeks in the season. Chad Parsons: The price has vaulted up on Javonte Williams after a quality rookie season. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB20. The uncertainty of Fournette's touch volume will make it hard to start him with confidence throughout the season, so a late-sixth-round ADP seems steep. Walter Payton 5. Phil Alexander: Drew Brees is arguably the best screen game quarterback in NFL history. The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. Expect a more even split in touches than many are forecasting and potentially for Brown to earn the lead role. I just see way too much downside to take a risk on lightning striking twice. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. That's right, Fournette was cut by the Jaguars, and I think the same could happen with Gordon entering this season. The team likes fourth-round pick Zamir White and passing down back Ameer Abdullah, and Kenyan Drake is still on the roster, so Jacobs is going to have trouble being consistent enough to merit an every-week RB2 start. The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. During the next few weeks, we here at NFL.com will unveil our Most Underrated and Overrated Players of All Time for all 32 teams and allow users to determine their choices as well.. Jameis Winston is a downfield passer, and Hill would rather run than check down. Jeff Bell: Gibson finished fourth in rushing attempts. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. I can't see Mostert getting enough work to justify his current ADP. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB28 | Consensus Projections RB29. Sigmund Bloom: There are too many forces that Barkley has to swim upstream again to justify taking Barkley at his lofty ADP. Phil Alexander: What makes people so confident the Dolphins backfield is not a committee? The Brazilian won the Ballon d'Or in 2005 and has been inducted into the Milan hall of fame for his impact between 2008 and 2011 before heading back to his homeland. Unfortunately, he needs to stay hyper-efficient on the ground to stay fantasy relevant, as Ravens running backs have gotten a 70/30 carry split with Jackson over the last three years. only site on the planet. He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. But you do have to attribute some of his success to his top 10 run blocking. Avoid. Cam Akers, LA Rams | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB13. Andrew Davenport: Montgomery was the 26th-ranked PPR running back in points per game at 12.2 a contest through nine games last year. What follows are some of the most notable BackCAST projections for the running back prospects available in the 2022 NFL draft, along with two overrated back based on this model: ESPN + Top 10 Most Overrated NFL Players of All Time. The investment in veteran wideout Sammy Watkins and rookies Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace almost cements Dobbinss capped upside in the passing game. Jerome Bettis 16. Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. Davis has changed teams five times in the last three seasons. Gaskin may be the top option for now, but that could change with a strong outing from veteran Malcolm Brown or Salvon Ahmed. Andy Hicks: The Broncos dont seem overly excited to use Melvin Gordon III this year. The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. 1 Tom Brady Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr., is an American football quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the National Football League. He's more powerful and understands how to work between the tackles. Lets take a look at the average Jerome Bettis season: 277 carries, 1051 yards, 3.9 YPC, 7 TDs. In 2012, Adrian Peterson ran for a near record-breaking 2,097 yards.. I would probably rank him around 43. The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders as an every-down back. It probably comes off as harsh to call Montgomery one of the most overrated running backs of the past decade, but he is. 1. Kansas City had 40 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing scores. Now we can extinguish any hopes of Jacobs getting more involved in the passing game. He was used more as a receiver than anything. McKissic returns from injury to his role as the pass-catching back, and Washington also drafted Brian Robinson Jr in the third round. With an almost entirely new coaching staff, quarterback and receivers, it is difficult to trust that Swift will be worth his asking price. 2022/07/02 . . Jeff Haseley: Clyde Edwards-Helaire has all of the tools and skills to be a successful fantasy back but failing to finish runs in the end zone has slowed his progress. If Johnson is the starter, he is probably a value where he is being drafted, but I'm not taking him at his current cost without some reassuring news about his role in the coming weeks. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another important key to a successful fantasy team. This three-headed committee with a healthy Jones is bad news for Fournette and means he is way overvalued at current ADP. Durability is atop the list after missing six games last year. With the second-year back getting selected in the early second round of most drafts, fantasy managers must be expecting that trend to continue in 2021. Henderson was arguably the best blocking fullback during the late 90s, paving the way for nine 1,000 yard rushers in his 12 years in Green Bay. This should be a fair competition, considering that Miami is changing its scheme this year. But so far, there is nothing to suggest that it is, and all three running backs are likely to play plenty. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. Finally, Sanders has continued fumbling and dropping passes in camp -- problems that plagued him last season. Gordon caught only 32 passes last year, and outside of three games where he scored two touchdowns, he was a mediocre fantasy back. I'm out. His primary use has been as an excellent pass-catching back. Then we have the Taysom Hill conundrum. His week one status is in doubt, and there are reports he may not be ready for 12-15 touch workloads until October. Yet, Travis Etienne was drafted in the first round, and Carlos Hyde, who Urban Meyer coached at Ohio State, was signed. The Commanders drafted Brian Robinson Jr on Day 2 of the draft, a bigger back who excelled in pass protection. Theyre going to be one of the worst teams in NFL History. 54 touchdowns. This NFL season, which isn't even over yet, 5 running backs have already rushed for more yards and 16 have more touchdowns. Brown has more power and better acceleration and change-of-direction quickness than Gaskin, who is the better receiver. He yields passing work to J.D. Anthony Amico: The new regime for the Raiders is not particularly reassuring of Jacobs' role with the team. Michael Carter, NY Jets | Consensus Rankings RB37 | Consensus Projections RB36. Gaskin's current draft position is indicative of him being the top back in Miami, and it's not a foregone conclusion that he is. Gaskin is a nice player, but the signings by this staff the last two offseasons say they don't have confidence that Gaskin is their guy. Jordan McNamara: Malcom Brown drew the starter role in the first preseason game, and the team has shown the willingness to change starters against conventional wisdom when Gaskin was a surprise starter in Week 1. The following represent the most overrated NFL player on each team. . Only he and Jim brown had a full career average of 5.0 ypc lifetime. Edgerrin James 17. Victoria Geary: Sanders had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). Jonathan Morris: Gibson was already someone I was worried about getting enough volume to be drafted at his current ADP. They traded up in the draft to select Javonte Williams and, without the large contract, may have already released the former Charger. Jim Brown 2. The final reason why Jerome Bettis is the most overrated RB of all time is because of the offensive line he ran behind. I definitely do not want the most expensive option here (Carter), but Coleman and Johnson are arbitrage plays. The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. Barry Sanders is easily the best ever. James Robinson, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB30. Yeah, us, too. Dillon is maturing as a receiver and might be used in that facet of the game despite his size profile suggesting hes a bruiser. Gaskin is an easy fade at his current price. That has shown to be largely untrue so far in camp as Williams and Gordon have been splitting first-team reps nearly 50-50 until Gordon has missed time with a foot injury. He rewarded those believers with an RB18 PPG season. At times he looked like the future back Detroit has been looking for this century. Matt Waldman: Gaskin displayed underrated skills last year and has become a favorite sleeper in the fantasy community. After the Robinson selection, head coach Ron Rivera likened the potential Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr combination to the Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams pairing he used during his Carolina days. Even when Barkley was a big fantasy hit, it took big plays that can be very mercurial from year to year to make it happen. His fantasy value came in catching 59 receptions, which won't happen in Arthur Smith's offense that doesn't throw to the tailbacks much. Also, Jalen Hurts is poised to siphon a few short-range scores from the running back position. While the opportunity is undeniable, it's risky betting on Davis as the answer. Sigmund Bloom: One year after the signing of Gordon indicated a lack of faith in Phillip Lindsay -- that bore out with Lindsay being allowed to leave in free agency this offseason -- the Broncos moved up in the second round to take Javonte Williams, indicating a lack of faith in Gordon. As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league over that finishing stretch to put up those huge numbers. Pittsburghs front five looks nothing like last years group. Cohen is not even a projected injury-away auto-start fantasy option heading into training camp. Fred Taylor Chad Parsons: Sanders stands out in the mid-teens of the running back draft pecking order most with his odds of being a high-impact option. Montgomery hasn't turned a corner in his career arc. He also is a touchdown liability -- he's scored 5, 6, and 4 touchdowns in three of his four seasons (11 the other season), which had led to finishing outside the Top 25 each of those years. The addition of James Conner, plus the knowledge that Kyler Murray could steal goal-line carries, also adds a bit of skepticism. Ryan Hester: Short of Taysom Hill (if he wins the job), this whole offense is an avoid for fantasy football right now. Cohen is strictly limited to passing-down work, and the numbers suggest that he isn't outstanding in that role either. He made general managers look like geniuses with more than 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 2016. Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB10. There's zero appeal here. For both Cleveland backs to be values, the team would have to produce vintage New Orleans-level production for its backs. Edmonds is a great player who offers a ton of talent on the field to help win games, but he will never be the high volume type of player that we are all desperately looking for each year. To point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. The next season he hit bottom with a knee injury that damaged his ACL, MCL, and meniscus. While 3,000 hits is nothing to scoff at, his place as an. I feel like most drafting Gordon right now are doing it on name value, but he now has plenty of competition with Javonte Williams and Mike Boone as priority adds this offseason. It seems the case that he is being drafted well above his upside. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Gaskin has an RB2 ceiling, but an RB3 value is a much stronger likelihood than many realize, whether it's Brown or a summer free-agent acquisition like Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, or a recent starter a team lets go to make room for an emerging force. Thats the first thing we notice. McKissic take the bulk of receiving work in Washington -- even though Gibson himself is a converted wide receiver. Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) #26. He and Ameer Abdullah -- who played over Kenyan Drake in the first preseason game -- could take away tons of receiving work, while White is capable of obtaining shots around the goal line. Jason Wood: Sometimes fate aligns, and that's what happened for Mike Davis last year in Carolina. Jan 26 . Search my work, about me, and maybe -if I ever get around to it - my blog. Jason Wood: Jacobs was the only projected Raiders offensive starter to play in the Hall of Fame game, which should be a blaring red flag for how much new head coach Josh McDaniels values Jacobs as a centerpiece. So as we can see, Bettis had about the 9th best run blocking offensive line in the NFL during his career. Sigmund Bloom: Brian Robinson Jr had an excellent preseason debut, while Antonio Gibson fumbled *again*, so this is trending in the wrong direction for Gibson's 2022 redraft value. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. James Brimacombe: Johnson has been a fantasy hero for us in the past, but now entering Year 7, his best days are behind him. Andrew Davenport: Fantasy managers are drafting Carter as though he is the unquestioned starter. Links to similar discussions on other positions: 12 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends28 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 10 Quarterbacks12 Tight Ends23 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 9 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends15 Wide Receivers13 Running Backs. He showed elite promise in his rookie year and followed it up with a top 10 season despite a high ankle sprain limiting his ascension. Drew Davenport: The memories of Johnson dominating in Arizona are still following him into this offseason. Henry has never caught more than 19 passes in a season, and that limited production as a receiver is an issue. In addition, Antonio Gibson finished the year banged up and ceding snaps to McKissic. Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina . It appears as if theres a change of guard happening in San Fransisco. Coach Brian Flores comes from New England, where they liked employing a committee, and now they have come out publicly to say this will, in fact, be a committee in Miami. In five games without Mark Ingram II in 2020, Dobbins only out-carried Gus Edwards 13 to 11.6. 1 Barry Sanders Barry Sanders is a former American football running back who spent his entire professional career with the Detroit Lions of the National Football League. Jeff Haseley: We know what Saquon Barkley is capable of, but we haven't seen him perform much in Jason Garrett's offense under Joe Judge's rule. Ben Cummins: Henrys past two monster years were with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the head coach in Atlanta. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. . But regardless of quarterback, Kamara is unlikely to return to his 80 reception ways. But drafting him as a high-upside No. Pat Fitzmaurice: First, a hat tip: For a guy who was a nonfactor in Purdue's offense for four years and was mostly a special-teamer in his first four NFL seasons, Mostert turned out to be a pretty good running back.